"What could have been" is a bit of a beaten-up horse in speculative fiction circles these days, but I admit I used to be a big fan of Harry Turtledove's works in that field.
I am too! I really liked his Southern Victory series, which seemed to be going with "what if the CSA made it to WWII and were the Nazis?" until he got a bit lazy and started just copying and pasting German WWII history... but in his defense he turned it around by the end.
Also fun fact... originally he planned for the CSA/UK/France Entente to win WWI, with Germany going down the Nazi path as it did IRL, and the US going fascist alongside it. The idea was that Black soldiers fighting for the Confederate cause would have thawed race relations in the CSA and made it a more open and liberal society, but Turtledove decided at the last second of the WWI arc that such a radical transformation in the CSA in such a short time was not realistic. So he switched gears and had the Germany/Austro-Hungarian/USA Central Powers win, to push the CSA in a more fascist direction, as it made more sense given where each country was.
This is why the US victory over Canada and the CSA in WWI is kinda an asspull involving tanks when realistically tanks weren't that effective in WWI, and why Gordon McSweeney gets so much focus until he abruptly dies. He's being set up as a US Hitler. Once Turtledove decided to swap the US and CS' places in the overall narrative McSweeney dies and Jake Featherston, a relatively minor CS viewpoint character, gets promoted to CS Hitler status.
Alternate history of alternate history. Fascinating or a rabbit hole? YOU DECIDE! Anyway that's a rant... but I always love talking Timeline-191. One of my favourite book series, Turtledove's trap of copying and pasting Nazi history instead of playing with it to do something unique aside.
Since Wheelie was slated to be the new kid-appeal character, Bumblebee (who looks up to Optimus) might have been an interesting choice. If they were worried about scale then Sideswipe (who was Hot Rod before Hot Rod, personality wise) seems a curiously not-considered-by-The-Powers option.
It is really fascinating that Hasbro chose to go with all new characters for the 1986 lineup instead of "promoting" existing ones. Like... the idea was to move old toys off the shelves and replace them with new toys, right? New characters isn't necessarily a part of that. And they did dip their toes in that water, with Galvatron, Cyclonus, Scourge, and the Sweeps technically being upgraded older characters in new bodies with new names.
So yeah... making Bumblebee the hero of TFTM with a brand new toy to celebrate his new main character/leader status could have been really fun.
True, although
Rhythms of Darkness and
Regeneration One showed us
a universe where Rodimus failed, and his remains served as Galvatron's therapy doll for a few years. (Though AVP would assert that the destruction of Cybertron/Vector Sigma led not to the universe collapsing but in the Liege Maximo becoming more moral, leading to his doing the sacrifice play to stop Unicron. So, your point still stands about the lack of starships required.)
True... and there was a Star Wars "What If?" story about Luke failing to blow up the Death Star and what that leads to.
I guess it falls into the nature of mythology, prophecy, etc... These stories in antiquity were meant to impart lessons and promote the social values of the day... "what if Moses failed to lead the Israelites out of Egypt?" or "what if Zeus failed to usurp Chronus?" tend to end up not working because divine forces are in motion. Things are happening as they do because they're meant to.
TFTM, by playing with prophecy and divine hero status tropes, tends to follow the same path. IDW's Deviations fails not just because it's one manchild's fanfic about why Hot Rod is a poopey head (although that is part of why it fails), but also because it doesn't deal in good faith with the central plot- which is that fate/Primus/the Matrix sees Hot Rod as its destined hero and therefore he must be in position to be that hero.
Deviations attempts to have its cake and eat it too... by having Optimus live but also technically having Hot Rod save the day via the Matrix before dying but this is just lazy.
If the premis is a true alternate history... well... G-ddamnit Tux, you're right! The joke image I posted would be better! Play with it, where destiny and the Matrix and Primus or whoever has a totally different end game in mind in this timeline. If you're rewriting TFTM where Hot Rod isn't the Chosen One, commit to him not being that.