Nobody has the intention to invade Ukraine
- Thread starter Nevermore
- Start date
It also seems like it's escalated over night, wagner is actually marching and the russian MOD is fortifying it's headquarters and moscow.
Might almost be time for an airing of swan lake in russia.
Edit: but after listening to some of the stuff coming up in my new feeds about it: this isn't necessarily a good thing for anyone. Wagner is ultranationalist and if they succeed; whomever they put in charge will likely be WORSE than putin and actually militarily competent.
Might almost be time for an airing of swan lake in russia.
Edit: but after listening to some of the stuff coming up in my new feeds about it: this isn't necessarily a good thing for anyone. Wagner is ultranationalist and if they succeed; whomever they put in charge will likely be WORSE than putin and actually militarily competent.
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I like that someone's already amended the Wagner Group Wikipedia page so the list of allies includes "
Russian Armed Forces (2014–2023)"
"The enemy of my enemy is still my enemy." --Drago Museveni, C.Y. 8427
Alright so, I have some thoughts.
Primary is: I think this is just about the end of the war in ukraine. Sure, there are still russian soldiers to oust and lots of bloody work to do, but the worst of it could very well be over because of this.
-Wagner hasn't openly accused or threatened putin, but putin cannot allow this to pass without reprimand. At the end of the day: wagner has to take a shot at putin because the conditions will not get better, and if they don't remove him; will only get worse. Bad toys get broken, after all and putin has already declared this treasonous.
-The russian military is "loyal" to the russian state, if they get the order to attack wagner forces: they will. Even if wagner gets a complete wipe and rebuild, the name alone will foster dissent among rank and file and they won't fight with them after a coup attempt. They either win the coup, or die out. There is no other option for wagner now.
-Wagner won't be able to go back to fighting in ukraine. Either they get wiped in this coup attempt (cause, remember: they're now in the position where they HAVE to go after putin, if only to ensure their continued existence.) or they succeed and suddenly are in a position where they have to run a country. They can't just walk away from that after giving it to someone else, because the someone else will probably be "putin-esque" (to ensure continued profitability of the company.) and their first target will be wagner to ensure there isn't another coup!
-The mainline russian army fighting with wagner in ukraine... they couldn't win. Now the army is going to be (at best.) split to deal with the wagner incursion. Meaning either russia pushes into a full mobilization to ensure troop levels to at least maintain the state of the conflict until they can refocus on it, or they voluntarily draw down giving ukraine the opening needed to take it all back. Which would be a massive morale and psychological blow to the already beaten and beleaguered russian populace, and probably be followed by massive internal (political.) attacks on putin and his government: since all his opponents would have to do is continue to follow the propaganda.
-Russia could replace wagner with other mercenaries, but it would only further break mainline russian army morale. Wagner are ultranationalists, while others would only be there for the money, and russian money is worthless. It would only serve to further undermine the war effort in ukraine.
The more I think about this, the more it seems like this is basically the tipping point for a civil war, and the collapse point for the ukraine war. If russia pushes for a full mobilization; the population will probably revolt. If wagner manages to kill the ministry of defense heads: putin will have to purge wagner, and the russian government killing ultra patriots will break their propaganda; the population could very well revolt. Putin FINALLY getting his nine mil retirement will create a massive power vaccuum in which the population will probably revolt (because it's about damn time they had a new option, and the major threat to them preventing them from revolting was putin.) AND collapse the war in ukraine. Wagner killing putin will force the russian military to either fracture entirely (and I don't mean picking sides: I literally mean "**** this noise, I'm going home."), or outright move against wagner.
I think we're seeing the opening days of the second bolshevik revolution.
Course, I'm a nobody, I'm probably wrong.
Primary is: I think this is just about the end of the war in ukraine. Sure, there are still russian soldiers to oust and lots of bloody work to do, but the worst of it could very well be over because of this.
-Wagner hasn't openly accused or threatened putin, but putin cannot allow this to pass without reprimand. At the end of the day: wagner has to take a shot at putin because the conditions will not get better, and if they don't remove him; will only get worse. Bad toys get broken, after all and putin has already declared this treasonous.
-The russian military is "loyal" to the russian state, if they get the order to attack wagner forces: they will. Even if wagner gets a complete wipe and rebuild, the name alone will foster dissent among rank and file and they won't fight with them after a coup attempt. They either win the coup, or die out. There is no other option for wagner now.
-Wagner won't be able to go back to fighting in ukraine. Either they get wiped in this coup attempt (cause, remember: they're now in the position where they HAVE to go after putin, if only to ensure their continued existence.) or they succeed and suddenly are in a position where they have to run a country. They can't just walk away from that after giving it to someone else, because the someone else will probably be "putin-esque" (to ensure continued profitability of the company.) and their first target will be wagner to ensure there isn't another coup!
-The mainline russian army fighting with wagner in ukraine... they couldn't win. Now the army is going to be (at best.) split to deal with the wagner incursion. Meaning either russia pushes into a full mobilization to ensure troop levels to at least maintain the state of the conflict until they can refocus on it, or they voluntarily draw down giving ukraine the opening needed to take it all back. Which would be a massive morale and psychological blow to the already beaten and beleaguered russian populace, and probably be followed by massive internal (political.) attacks on putin and his government: since all his opponents would have to do is continue to follow the propaganda.
-Russia could replace wagner with other mercenaries, but it would only further break mainline russian army morale. Wagner are ultranationalists, while others would only be there for the money, and russian money is worthless. It would only serve to further undermine the war effort in ukraine.
The more I think about this, the more it seems like this is basically the tipping point for a civil war, and the collapse point for the ukraine war. If russia pushes for a full mobilization; the population will probably revolt. If wagner manages to kill the ministry of defense heads: putin will have to purge wagner, and the russian government killing ultra patriots will break their propaganda; the population could very well revolt. Putin FINALLY getting his nine mil retirement will create a massive power vaccuum in which the population will probably revolt (because it's about damn time they had a new option, and the major threat to them preventing them from revolting was putin.) AND collapse the war in ukraine. Wagner killing putin will force the russian military to either fracture entirely (and I don't mean picking sides: I literally mean "**** this noise, I'm going home."), or outright move against wagner.
I think we're seeing the opening days of the second bolshevik revolution.
Course, I'm a nobody, I'm probably wrong.
Pretty sure wagner can chase his ass there too.
Welcome to the entirety of Russian history. It is fascinating, but it is a sad unending nightmare for the Russian people.
Huh. He always said this was about the MoD and not Putin, which even if true... this doesn't seem like the kind of thing you just stop. You either see it through or you die. So very bizarre.
I've been to Russia a few times. Very unnerving place.
Putin ran from wagner, but wagner literally tried to mount a coup. Putin is going to have to punish them, and the (heavily propagandized.) population will not take to putin destroying their elite forces.
Either way, wagner is going to be notably less effective in ukraine in the near future. Assuming they're telling the truth, after all. Russia is still lying...
Either way, wagner is going to be notably less effective in ukraine in the near future. Assuming they're telling the truth, after all. Russia is still lying...
The only prediction I'm comfortable making is that we will never know for sure what happened here.
I'm sure we'll hear about an official story from the Kremlin sooner or later. And it'll have about as much to do with what actually happened as any of the rest of Putin's propaganda.
He left the Capitol to go meet them and use his powerful personality and consummate negotiating skills to bring them back into the fold.
Easy-peasy.
Wonder what they offered him to get him to back down like this?
It looks like Wagner is essentially being absorbed into the Russian military officially, and Prigozhin is off to Belarus... without the leverage of the Wagner troops, how is he going to make sure he doesn't fall out a window or have a sudden heart attack due to "stress" one day?
It looks like Wagner is essentially being absorbed into the Russian military officially, and Prigozhin is off to Belarus... without the leverage of the Wagner troops, how is he going to make sure he doesn't fall out a window or have a sudden heart attack due to "stress" one day?