Iran. Nuff said.

[Pale Rider]

They concealed nuclear activity during the JCPOA. It may have slowed down there progress, but it was not stopping it. Afaik there is no non-weapon reason to enrich that far. They either wanted a nuclear weapon, or the credible threat of one to bully and black mail with. Its absolutely naivety to think otherwise.

The IAEA confirmed multiple times that Iran was complying with the deal until the US pulled out:

Iran is Implementing Nuclear-related JCPOA Commitments, Director General Amano Tells IAEA Board

Iran is implementing its nuclear-related commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano told the Agency’s 35-nation Board of Governors on Monday.

www.iaea.org

The higher enrichment only started after the deal collapsed.

And yeah, there's no civilian reason to enrich to 60% or more. That's exactly why the JCPOA limited enrichment to 3.67% and included constant inspections. The point wasn’t to trust them. It was to cap their capabilities and verify everything. And it worked until we walked away.

 

[Pale Rider]

Sounds like the Vietnam War but without the Viet Cong, just a uniformed conventional North military. An entirely different strategy and most likely different outcome.

The system is nowhere near as fragile as Iran is. Their strategy was always based on being too unconventionally frightening to face conventionally. If the Iran of June 2025 (as opposed to June 2024) tried to choke off the entire world's oil supply, it would find itself in a stand-up fight against that entire world, alone, with no allies or air defenses. And it would wind up like Libya.

(For the record, this would be scary and bad. But it would be predictable, and short.)

Markets don't wait for a full-scale war. Just the threat of Iran messing with shipping can spike oil prices and disrupt trade. We've already seen that with the Houthis, and Iran's got way more reach.

Sure, Iran's not what it was a year ago, but it's not Libya either. It's bigger, more dug in and still dangerous. Even a "short and predictable" war at the Strait would come with global fallout.

That's a steep price for a fight built on such a flimsy pretext.

 

[Pale Rider]

Are you talking about something beyond Iran? Because they don't produce anywhere near 1/5 of the global supply.

I don't think wonko is saying Iran produces 1/5 of the world's oil. I suspect he meant that the Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of all global oil shipments, which is absolutely true.

Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

It's not about Iran's output, it's about their ability to disrupt the chokepoint. That's why even a threat there can spike prices, rattle markets and hit the global economy hard. Regardless of how much Iran actually pumps.

 

[wonko the sane?]

Thank you Rider.

 

[Ultra Magnus13]

I don't think wonko is saying Iran produces 1/5 of the world's oil. I suspect he meant that the Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of all global oil shipments, which is absolutely true.

Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

It's not about Iran's output, it's about their ability to disrupt the chokepoint. That's why even a threat there can spike prices, rattle markets and hit the global economy hard. Regardless of how much Iran actually pumps.

They are in no position to hold or control anything. The majority of the oil shipped through there is consumed by China. Its unlikely they would let any attempts to shut it down stand.

 

[Pale Rider]

They don’t need to "hold" the Strait, just make it risky. A few mines, missiles or drone hits are enough to spike prices and force reroutes. That's exactly what happened with the Houthis in the Red Sea, and they're way less capable than Iran. China might not like disruption, but they can't stop it once it starts.

Also, it doesn’t matter who consumes the oil. Prices are global. If the Strait gets disrupted, the whole market feels it. China losing access just means they buy from someone else, and everyone else pays more.

 

[Dekafox]

Wouldn't be just oil either, depending on how much other shipping uses that strait. When the Houthis were striking merchant traffic, it actually caused a shortage on shipping containers and jacked prices up on them, per an RPG book publisher who was having to deal with said container shortage and prices to get his books shipped

Also:

Iran launches missiles at US military base in Qatar in retaliation for American bombing

Iran launched missile attacks on a U.S. military base in Qatar, retaliating for the American bombing of its nuclear sites and escalating tensions in the volatile region.

apnews.com

Iran's fired some missiles at the US base in Qatar, and reportedly another base in Iraq hosting US troops, saying they fired one for every bomb dropped.

 

[Pale Rider]

Wouldn't be just oil either, depending on how much other shipping uses that strait. When the Houthis were striking merchant traffic, it actually caused a shortage on shipping containers and jacked prices up on them, per an RPG book publisher who was having to deal with said container shortage and prices to get his books shipped

Exactly. And it gets even worse when you remember the world still runs on the petrodollar. Disruptions like that don't just mess with oil. They shake everything tied to dollar-based trade.

If oil flow slows, the ripple effect hits global shipping, currency markets and commodity prices. That's why threats to the Strait of Hormuz hit way harder than people realize.

 

[wonko the sane?]

And it's not like Iran would be directly doing it, they would be paying people like the houthis to just step up what they were already doing.

 

[CoffeeHorse]

Trump now claims we have a ceasefire agreement.

 

[KidTDragon]

I'll get his Peace Prize ready.

 

[Pale Rider]

Let’s not celebrate just yet.

Even if there's a ceasefire on paper, Iran was never going to fight a conventional war unless we actually invaded. Short of that, their strategy is asymmetric: proxies, cyber attacks, regional disruption and economic pressure. Those tools don't go away because someone declares a pause.

And let’s be honest, this probably won't satisfy Bibi Nosferatu either.

He's been itching for escalation for years. A brief ceasefire won't stop him if he thinks he can drag this out or get backing for a bigger conflict.

 

[wonko the sane?]

More to the point, the purported ceasefire was between israel and iran, and israel has denied there being any such ceasefire. Trump is just spouting bullshit to make it look like he's won... and he hasn't.

 

[Pale Rider]

Meanwhile, the big takeaway for every regime watching?

Get nukes.

Iraq didn't have them. Libya gave them up. North Korea kept theirs and no one's invading Pyongyang.

All this really did was make proliferation look like the smart move.

 

[wonko the sane?]

I'm sad to say that we still live in a world where MAD is stability.

 

[Thylacine 2000]

And it's not like Iran would be directly doing it, they would be paying people like the houthis to just step up what they were already doing.

Looking on a map, how exactly are the Houthis in Yemen supposed to close Hormuz? Or is Iran - hammered this badly - supposed to create and arm a whole new proxy army literally overnight?

I feel like we keep hitting the same points but people are really not following through on the logic their statements demand. If disrupting Hormuz is terrible for the world (and it is), then the world would unite to reopen it. Would there be price shocks? Sure, and nothing resembling the prolonged and cooperative Arab oil embargo in the 1970s, because the Arabs would want it open now too. Saddam Hussein blew up a lot of oil wells and it didn't save him. The Suez Canal got physically blocked a few years ago and the world kept turning.

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital route for oil. Closing it could backfire on Iran

The war between Israel and Iran has raised concerns that Iran could try to close the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil chokepoint.

apnews.com

 

[Pale Rider]

He said "people like the Houthis," not "the Houthis will close Hormuz." The point is Iran already has other proxy groups they can lean on (e.g. Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq). They don't need to invent anything new.

Yeah, the world would definitely try to reopen Hormuz, but markets don’t wait for coalitions to mobilize. They react instantly. Even a short disruption can spike oil to $150+, jack up shipping costs and hit global supply chains hard. Especially in a system as interconnected as today’s is.

As for the Arab oil embargo: that was a political decision. A Hormuz crisis would be a military threat. Totally different scenario. And Saddam torching oil wells was a desperate move during a retreat, not some smart deterrent strategy. It didn’t work because he was already losing.

And the Suez Canal? That was a stuck boat. Not missiles, not sea mines, not IRGC boats harassing tankers. A threatened Hormuz isn't just some logistical hiccup, it’s a geopolitical powder keg. The market knows the difference.

 

[Thylacine 2000]

If the market reaction winds up so bad, it is even more of an incentive for a brutal military coalition response. The market would then recover, and Iran wouldn't.

I just don't see the point of hyping that angle. Of all the cards Iran might have, this is the one both least personally dangerous and most guaranteed to be resolved quickly by the great powers. Think of how much the system moved against Luigi, multiply that by a hundred billion, with the rich assholes now being on our side this time. Every rich asshole in the world will gallop to defend their money, with extreme prejudice. The spice must flow.

 

[Pale Rider]

That assumes perfect coordination and instant resolve, but markets move faster than militaries.

A disruption doesn't need to last long to cause global pain. And Iran doesn't have to win, just make enough noise to shake the system. The rich may gallop to defend their money, but they can't rewind a shock once it hits.

 

[Thylacine 2000]

So we'll get a shock. No one denied that, but it's not worth the hype. I mean, are you saying we're doomed? That we should apologize to Iran before they wreak a terrible revenge that dooms us, because they hold the final card? And does that happen before the promised regional war or after?

I'm a lifelong environmental educator and activist. I know there's a fine line between predicting disaster and feeling vindicated by it.