Iran. Nuff said.
- Thread starter Nevermore
- Start date
Doug Madory (@[email protected])
Attached: 4 images Much of Iran's internet service is down as of 14:00 UTC (5:30pm local). Between 13:45-14:00 UTC traffic levels for the largest networks in Iran began plummeting.
infosec.exchange
The plane and the bomb that could draw America into a war with Iran
Trump has threatened Iran with "bombing the likes of which they have never seen before" if Tehran does not sign a deal on its nuclear program.
www.newsweek.com
Nicola :official_verified: (@[email protected])
#Iran: “Do not use #WhatsApp and #Telegram, used by #Israel for targeted assassinations” Iran has asked its citizens not to use WhatsApp and Telegram and other "location-based applications", stating that this is "one of Israel's main methods for identifying and targeting individuals". This was...
infosec.exchange
Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cx23e4jz2g0t
Last edited:
We are living through a Strangelove Scenario.
Now that they've launched their decapitating strike at Iran's leaders and nukes, Israel does not have the option of backing down and going home. That would guarantee a nuclear counterattack that destroys them, sooner or sooner. They must escalate until they accomplish one or both goals.
Note that Israel very nearly got access to the super bunker-busters that are widely believed necessary for taking out the Fordow site. Barack Obama was going to give it to them in 2015, but Netanyahu so infuriated him by lobbying against the Iran nuclear deal and giving a speech about it to Congress that he changed his mind. Of course, Trump would then withdraw the nuclear deal anyway, so if Netanyahu had just kept his mouth shut and not been antagonistic to a sitting POTUS he could have gotten everything he wanted. More:
www.haaretz.com
But bear in mind that, as mentioned in the post above this, no Israeli plane can actually carry the things.
Do they really need the giant bunker-busters? Israel's ambassador to the U.S. says there are "other ways" of dealing with the site:
Many sources speculate that dropping dozens of 5,000 pound bombs might do comparable damage to one 30,000 pounder.
And then there's this:
www.middleeasteye.net
Now that they've launched their decapitating strike at Iran's leaders and nukes, Israel does not have the option of backing down and going home. That would guarantee a nuclear counterattack that destroys them, sooner or sooner. They must escalate until they accomplish one or both goals.
Note that Israel very nearly got access to the super bunker-busters that are widely believed necessary for taking out the Fordow site. Barack Obama was going to give it to them in 2015, but Netanyahu so infuriated him by lobbying against the Iran nuclear deal and giving a speech about it to Congress that he changed his mind. Of course, Trump would then withdraw the nuclear deal anyway, so if Netanyahu had just kept his mouth shut and not been antagonistic to a sitting POTUS he could have gotten everything he wanted. More:
Barak, Bibi and Obama's bunker buster option
The former defense minister sent the press scrambling for clues after saying vaguely that Netanyahu left Israel with 'an extremely troubling vulnerability to a key security challenge.' A hint as to what that might have been can be found in Dennis Ross' last book.
www.haaretz.com
But bear in mind that, as mentioned in the post above this, no Israeli plane can actually carry the things.
Do they really need the giant bunker-busters? Israel's ambassador to the U.S. says there are "other ways" of dealing with the site:
Many sources speculate that dropping dozens of 5,000 pound bombs might do comparable damage to one 30,000 pounder.
And then there's this:
Russia won't be able to stop regime change in Iran, Kremlin source says: Report
www.middleeasteye.net
The problem with using multiple 5000 pound bombs instead of the single, specialized, design to do this, 30,000 pound bomb is: you need to ABSOLUTELY control that airspace for a not insignificant period of time. And the more you need to use, the longer you need to hold it, dirt and sky.
No ground troops, no anti-air, no nothing: Just so you can convoy in a series of fat, slow, heavy precision bombers.
You've now hit the point where, tactically, to minimize risk: you break out a nuke and just use a tactical weapon.
Which means you're well past the point that literally any other strategy would work, like actual regime change (as opposed to a regime "refresh" which is what you would get if you just ******* bomb the jive out of them.). A big enough strike, nuclear or non, is going to cause the population to rally around their government, regardless of how much they actually like their government. They will take the devil they know if it means they get back to whatever passes for stability.
No ground troops, no anti-air, no nothing: Just so you can convoy in a series of fat, slow, heavy precision bombers.
You've now hit the point where, tactically, to minimize risk: you break out a nuke and just use a tactical weapon.
Which means you're well past the point that literally any other strategy would work, like actual regime change (as opposed to a regime "refresh" which is what you would get if you just ******* bomb the jive out of them.). A big enough strike, nuclear or non, is going to cause the population to rally around their government, regardless of how much they actually like their government. They will take the devil they know if it means they get back to whatever passes for stability.
Welcome to World War III.
Goddamn it.
If you're going to do something this insanely risky, let's at least hope it worked.
I’m old enough to remember when Al Gore was going to be the warmongering president, while GW Bush was touted as the peaceful non-interventionist.
When will our government learn that forced regime change never really works out the way we want it too... I want the Ayatollah removed just as much as anyone, but the Iranians HAVE to be the ones to do it. We go in guns blazing it will just make the Iranians question any person or system we put in place to to replace him(and for good reason). Also the 'leaders' we put in place have a tendency to turn around and betray us anyway. The ONLY non-MAGA people who think this is a good idea is the current Israeli government and their ardent supporters and frankly the people currently in charge of the Israeli government aren't any better than the Ayatollah and the Iranian government.
Just waiting for Trump to complain yet again that he hasn't been given the Nobel Peace Prize after this latest incident.
Just waiting for Trump to complain yet again that he hasn't been given the Nobel Peace Prize after this latest incident.
Well, on the plus side, now all those Gravy SEALs can step up and show just how ready they really are to fight and kill for the Great Pumpkin, right?
Right?
Right?
90% of them would be turned away at the recruiter's office due to not being physically fit enough to enlist. That is 90% of those who would actually even try. Many of the Gravy Seals only do what they do to feel powerful. The moment they actually have to put themselves in harms way, they back down and retreat.
Yeah, not a goddamn one has any clue what to do when faced with an actual threat.
He's just going to insist that he saved us all from Iran's nukes. They were probably just about to launch right before our bombs dropped.
Therefore, he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.