Harris-Walz / Dems

[abates]

That's one poll and all the others are saying Harris is ahead.

 

[wonko the sane?]

It's within the margin of error and could actually be harris 49/trump 46.

 

[KidTDragon]

Ignore the polls and keep your foot on the gas. We lose when we give up.

 

[Pale Rider]

She might be against trump, but she's still part of the problem.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1832795669997756778

 

[wonko the sane?]

No, bernies got a good point: please applaud the republican when they do the right thing for the right reason. Maybe they'll come to understand that there is a difference between positive attention negative attention, and actually want positive attention from now.

 

[Rhinox]

I don't think we'll get to the point where we've Pavlovian trained the Cheney family into being good people, but I agree that we should applaud when even they realize the threat and take steps. That's a big move for them.

 

[CoffeeHorse]

That's one poll and all the others are saying Harris is ahead.

NYT has this to say about that.

To me, the result is a bit surprising. It’s the first lead for Mr. Trump in a major nonpartisan national survey in about a month. As a result, it’s worth being at least a little cautious about these findings, as there isn’t much confirmation from other polls.

That said, it wouldn’t be hard to explain if Vice President Harris’s support really has faded a bit in recent weeks. After all, she was benefiting from an ideal news environment: an uninterrupted month of glowing coverage from President Biden’s departure from the race in July to the Democratic convention in August. It’s possible she was riding a political sugar high; if so, it would make sense if she came off those highs in the two uneventful weeks since the convention.

There’s also a plausible reason the Times/Siena poll would be the first to capture a shift back toward Mr. Trump: There simply haven’t been many high-quality surveys fielded since the convention, when Ms. Harris was riding high. There was a scattering of online polls this week, but there hasn’t been a traditional high-quality survey with interviews conducted after Aug. 28.

 

[Rhinox]

I don't think we can trust polls from most news agencies anymore. They have far too much invested in the horse race to be anything near impartial. The potential of panic and the subsequent news generated from that panic is more than enough to sway an organization with a corporate overlord to perhaps not use the most impartial of criteria or standards.

 

[Axaday]

NYT has this to say about that. "but there hasn’t been a traditional high-quality survey with interviews conducted after Aug. 28."

Why the heck not?

 

[wonko the sane?]

Cause measuring the outcome would change it. Trump also said schools are forcing kids to have transgender surgery, and the NYT didn't even comment on it. Corporate media is entirely too invested in turning it into a horse race for their own profit. The majority of polls have always indicated tight races and the last decade has seen republicans losing volumes and times they shouldn't have.

 

[Pale Rider]

FB friend:

Expect Trump to use the Gish Gallop tomorrow. He'll throw so much fallacious or dishonest bullshit at Kamala Harris that she won't be able to answer all of it, so she'll have to either ignore most of his lies or spread herself too thin trying to answer them all.

One defense against the Gish Gallop is to categorize an entire group of the galloper's lies as all fitting a theme or central line of attack, and then go after that theme or line of attack. I hope she's been prepared on this.

Media bias prediction: unless Kamala Harris absolutely annihilates Donald Trump in tonight's debate, the media will report the result as "disappointing" for her camp, and thereby imply that Trump won.

Furthermore, any misstep she makes will be analyzed in great detail and mentioned in headlines, while Trump's many lies and confused forays into meaningless gibberish will be glossed over as "a typical Trump performance" or somesuch.

 

[wonko the sane?]

We already knew that trump was going to be graded on a curve, and overly generously applauded for a performance that would disqualify anyone else. We knew.

Corporate media needs to understand the american population is not quite as stupid as they think they are: and will actually see and understand what they are watching. They'll say trump did okay, and harris bombed... but that's not the reality that most americans will see. They'll the truth of it.

 

[Axaday]

CNN is saying this debate is for all the marbles.

But usually the result of a debate is that both sides are impressed by their candidate and say they won. It will be unusual if she just LOSES.

 

[wonko the sane?]

They might not be wrong: there's a huge bias in favour of trump in corporate media. They have an outsized effect on perception. I have faith in most of the american public to see past it, but their opinions are still broadcast to the rest of the world whom don't get a view from ground level.

There's a reason nato is making an american proof long term resource plan for ukraine. There's a reason why the EU and canada are trying to diversify trade treaties in southeast asia.

 

[KidTDragon]

FB friend: One defense against the Gish Gallop is to categorize an entire group of the galloper's lies as all fitting a theme or central line of attack, and then go after that theme or line of attack. I hope she's been prepared on this.

I've heard that the best defense against the Gish Gallop is calling attention to it.

 

[Pocket]

I think the best way to deal with it is to ignore it and answer the moderator's question as if she was in an interview rather than a debate. And reply to any prompts of "Vice President, your response?" with "I already answered the question. Did he? It didn't sound like it to me."

 

[Paladin]

with only four months left in office, President Biden has apparently decided he's not doing phrasing anymore.

 

[wonko the sane?]

The hug you care what he says or how he says it now? Dude is fired.

 

[CoffeeHorse]

Debate just started.

They shook hands. Harris went for it. Trump obviously did not expect it. A lot of people lost money on that bet.

Okay. As someone with stage fright, I think Harris has it. It doesn't mean she doesn't know what she's going to say, or that she doesn't have confidence in what she's going to say. If you've got it, there's just nothing you can do about it.

Moderators are asking good questions.

Trump still doesn't know how to answer the abortion question. It's just spray and pray, and he tripped on one of his own talking points.

They stopped muting the mics. Uh oh.

Abortion over. Immigration time. Trump punted on his own signature issue.

Trump brought up the Springfield story. This is unraveling.

Harris has stage fright and Trump snorted 20 lines of coke on the ride over here.

Oh boy. Harris got answered the "Why have you changed all your positions?" question... and she did not nail the response.

Trump got in the "I'm talking" line before she could.

January 6. Here we go. Trump did not win any points on this one.

Coke comes with second waves apparently.

I think most of the pundits are going to say Harris won. She is not nailing any of the big questions anyone was waiting for her to answer tonight, but she did have a goal of getting under Trump's skin and he is taking the bait every time. Even when they're on Trump's favorite issues he can't get his own points out because he gets completely distracted by the dumbest things.

Concepts of a plan.

Closing arguments. Thank god.


That was a mixed bag. I think people who tuned out after the first few minutes are going to think Trump won, just because Harris was so obviously nervous. People who watched all the way through are going to think Harris won.

 

[Axaday]

I felt like she acquitted herself well. Trump landed a few points, but her message was strong.

She also did a very good job of goading Trump. Every time she stuck something in that wounded his pride irrelevantly, he responded to that instead of the issue.