the movie isn't even bombing lmfao
Really, had the movie opened to Elemental’s numbers (sub 30 mil opening weekend), THEN we’d be talking a bomb. Reportedly, Elemental’s budget was in the $200 million range as well.
It’s not a complete bomb but it’s not doing well either. It’s probably breaking even at best if we use the usual double the published budget rule of thumb for these big Hollywood films.
With how ridiculously inflated marketing budgets have gotten in recent years, I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish in the red.
Then again, there’s a LOT of money on the back end we don’t see. While Paramount+ will get the streaming options first, they WILL open up to other providers. Transformers, as a franchise, actually gets quite a bit of play across channels from multiple owners. IIRC, Revenge of the Fallen was a massive hit on home video, and I‘m sure subsequent films did good numbers as well.
RotB has also seen a LOT of media tie ins that I don’t recall seeing for even some recent Marvel and Pixar projects, so there’s money there. And there’s also residuals from the toys. Paramount still sees a cut for anything featuring a direct from movie design, and if the toys do well, that feeds into the bottom line.
Ultimately, I don’t think RotB will be any failure, but I also feel that studios are starting to really be forced to grasp with the ramifications of how streaming has changed consumers views on consuming content. If RotB does comparable numbers to Bumblebee (given the release timing, I expect it to do marginally better), I think most involved will deem it “good enough”, especially considering the stronger back end the Transformers franchise has compared to others.
Frankly, RotB is coming out better than some of its competition. Fast X will struggle to hit $150 million, D&D (despite the rave reviews) MIGHT scratch pass $95 million. I’d be shocked if Indiana Jones does much better than RotB.
Mission Impossible will do gang busters because Tom Cruise is, somehow, a money magnet.
