Trump continued to have rallies after he was elected president, so I strongly suspect he would have continued to do so even had he not been elected. I feel like the media coverage that would bring would have helped spread the lie. I doubt it would have reached the point of people trying to storm the Capitol, since Jan 6 had a lot of extra factors - four extra years of Fox and other stations spreading the lie that the election was stolen, and the whole Covid pandemic resulting in a proliferation of anti-vax conspiracy theories which seemed to bring out the people susceptible to accepting alternate reality nonsense. I think there would have been less of the harassing of poll workers and officials, but still a proliferation of the lie that Trump had won.