Traitor Watch - The 45 & 47 Thread

[Pocket]

Yep, I could see them just letting him win the primary simply out of fear that he'll run third party otherwise and throw the election even harder than running as a Republican already would.

Well, I say "they", but to me that kind of calculated move feels more like something I'd expect of the party leadership than millions of mostly uncoordinated voters. And barring a brokered primary, the party leadership doesn't get to decide squat.

 

[Axaday]

The party leadership didn't want Trump the first time. They just couldn't stop it. They even pulled their support after the Access Hollywood tape, but Trump already had the momentum.

THEY won't just let him win the primary, because it is a different They. The people running against him in the primary have their own personal ambitions and they are going to be President or see proof that they can't. They would rather be the 2024 GOP nominee and lose the election than be some guy that also ran in the primary that year.

 

[wonko the sane?]

The GOP will absolutely let him take the primary again, because the cult follows trump and they cannot win the election without the cult.

They cannot win the election with trump in at all. Even with the greatest possible clone, the majority of the population does not support the culture war bullshit and complete lack of policy. They have only gotten as far as they have because of how stupid the gerrymandering and voter roll purges have gotten.

 

[Axaday]

The GOP will absolutely let him take the primary again, because the cult follows trump and they cannot win the election without the cult.

I really don't think he's going to be getting the nomination or even be the last contender. I think his star is falling and several other people are able to capture his fire.

They cannot win the election with trump in at all. Even with the greatest possible clone, the majority of the population does not support the culture war bullshit and complete lack of policy. They have only gotten as far as they have because of how stupid the gerrymandering and voter roll purges have gotten.

I don't know where you live and I'm not asking, but I live in Oklahoma and I am surrounded by people who openly espouse that Trump is the only hope for this country to have a future. He has created and tapped into a subculture. I don't know if it is enough, but if you live in a big city you might not see what I am seeing. As I said, I don't think it will be enough to win again. I know too many people who voted for him in 2016 and then against him in 2020 because they didn't enjoy the chaotic buffoonery. He has a solid base of idiot supporters (which helps him any day) and a good measure of people who will vote for whoever the GOP nominates (which doesn't help him in the primaries), but in 2016 I think he had a good measure of people that just felt like things needed to be shaken up and he was the kind of guy to do it and an awful lot of those people were disappointed.

I mean to ask my Dad soon if he would vote for Trump again. He did in 2016 and 2020, but I have some hope that he's seen enough now.

 

[wonko the sane?]

No, I agree with you entirely: but you also need to understand: you aren't getting the whole picture from just your little corner of hell. The stats bear it out: 70-75% of the US absolutely does not support any of the noise republicans are spouting. They want their reproductive rights, they want gun control, they want access to cheap medical care, and honestly don't care HOW the car goes vroom so long as it's cheap. Now, that doesn't mean they outright support democratic peoples and proposals, but there is open and definitive fatigue from the majority of people over the culture war bullshit; immigration, gun violence, the environment. It's been going on long enough that even the lifers can see that when the republicans are given the power: they don't ******* DO anything with it. There's always another mass shooting, another "migrant caravan", and another chant to drown out the sounds of suffering around them.

The cult was never huge to begin with, and it's literally swallowing itself these days. They'll happily purity test themselves into ongoing election loses and wonder why they can't win even with all their cheating. You're out in the thick of it, but it's not only losing people; it's losing momentum. Jan 6th was an explosive day for the cult: but TWO YEARS of slow and steady arrests and sentences has quelled it nicely. Doesn't hurt that all those folks have gone on record saying "trump told me to do it" and the statement hasn't protected any of them. Nor did trump step up to protect those people, cause you absolutely know that fox news would have had every single one of them on singing cultish praises.

The absolute ironic part is that trump pushed the republicans to their furthest extreme, and the pushback is that even folks whom used to be republican lifers are now starting to think "Yeah, let's tax the rich, protect the environment, and institute gun laws. I honestly do want these things". MAGA actually did push to make america great again. Complete opposite to how the republicans wanted it (fascist dictatorship.) but they've had a heavy hand in doing it.

 

[The Mighty Mollusk]

The problem is whether any of that actually matters. Between extreme gerrymandering, voter suppression, and Republicans outright trying to rewrite the laws to let themselves just ignore elections entirely, not to mention the complete lack of consequences for anything they do or say, it's really hard to cling onto any form of optimism anymore.

 

[wonko the sane?]

In the hard red states: it doesn't matter, you are right.

In the swing states: it does. And as more of the country pushes blue, the republicans end up with less over all power and less tolerance for their bullshit. Because you will eventually hit a point where red state residents are looking at formerly red states and asking "why are things going such much better over there?" and ******* hauling ass for greener grass.

 

[Corvus]

Indeed. For example, Wisconsin is a swing-state, and a Liberal Judge just won an election that gave the left control of that state's Supreme Court for the first time in 15 years. And while many pundits thought it would be so close that they wouldn't be in a position to call the race today, let alone last night, that result was a 10-point blowout.

Living in rural America, or being surrounded by those who still swallow FAUX news may give another impression, but most people are sick and tired of the culture wars. The GQP may have started to cut its own throat with Trump for starters, and then actually getting Roe repealed. Things are not going the way the Repubs hoped, especially when you take into account that several Trump-appointed judges haven't seen things the GQP way in several important examples.

Now, there's still time in which a hell of a lot can happen, and keep in mind that I don't trust the American electorate. But there's definitely a few glimmers of hope out there.

EDIT: Hell, most people just want to be able to do things like buy EGGS without blowing their grocery budget. Discriminating against LGBTQA+ folks does jack-frelling-squat to keep costs down, to keep their vehicles gassed up, and a roof over their heads, and the majority of Americans realize this.

 

[CoffeeHorse]

I really don't think he's going to be getting the nomination or even be the last contender. I think his star is falling and several other people are able to capture his fire.

A few months ago I could have seen that, but Trump was gaining momentum even before all this. Desantis waited too long to announce (and still hasn't), and the other candidates are, um... who? The GOP field is very boring so far.

 

[wonko the sane?]

Seems like most of the republicans primary candidates were waiting for trump to be arraigned, and they'll start crawling out from under the fridge and stove soon enough. And we know this because desantis is still in the process of forcing through the legislation that would allow him to run for president while not giving up the governor position.

 

[The Mighty Mollusk]

Other candidates haven't come forward yet because campaigning is expensive and they're waiting to see if Trump would even be eligible to run again before they start spending. He'd still have enough of a cult following to make it dicey.

 

[Corvus]

A few months ago I could have seen that, but Trump was gaining momentum even before all this. Desantis waited too long to announce (and still hasn't), and the other candidates are, um... who? The GOP field is very boring so far.

Gaining so much momentum that his pleas for protestors in the wake of his arraignment garnered crowds in the tens of people, or less.

Yeah, he's still a big problem, and there are definitely reasons to remain concerned, but he's not the Trump of 2015. DeSantis concerns me a lot more.

 

[CoffeeHorse]

The other candidates aren't going to have a chance to make their own pitches though. Whenever they manage to get on TV the first thing they're going to be asked about is how they feel about the latest daily update in Trump's legal drama. They will be forced to say his name all the time.

DeSantis seems to be aware of this media trap and has been trying to avoid saying Trump's name, but I don't know how long that can last.

 

[Corvus]

Certainly possible, and a fair point. Time will, as always, tell the tale.

 

[The Mighty Mollusk]

Exonerated Central Park Five member turns tables on Trump

‘On the day he was arrested and arraigned, here is my ad in response,’ Yusef Salaam says

www.independent.co.uk

 

[wonko the sane?]

The other candidates aren't going to have a chance to make their own pitches though. Whenever they manage to get on TV the first thing they're going to be asked about is how they feel about the latest daily update in Trump's legal drama. They will be forced to say his name all the time.

DeSantis seems to be aware of this media trap and has been trying to avoid saying Trump's name, but I don't know how long that can last.

It'll last exactly as long as desantis doesn't announce his presidential intentions. Then he'll have to comment on it, and if he's ever surprised by the question: we might just get an unfiltered take from defascist. Which will just be hilarious.

 

[NovaSaber]

No, I agree with you entirely: but you also need to understand: you aren't getting the whole picture from just your little corner of hell. The stats bear it out: 70-75% of the US absolutely does not support any of the noise republicans are spouting. They want their reproductive rights, they want gun control, they want access to cheap medical care, and honestly don't care HOW the car goes vroom so long as it's cheap.

And the majority do not support the transphobia that the right have inexplicably made such a central focus:

Even most Republican voters think the GOP is attacking transgender kids too much

Knowing a trans or nonbinary person significantly reduced the chance that someone would say that they're a threat...

www.lgbtqnation.com

 

[Axaday]

A few months ago I could have seen that, but Trump was gaining momentum even before all this. Desantis waited too long to announce (and still hasn't), and the other candidates are, um... who? The GOP field is very boring so far.

It is way earlier than you think it is.

 

[Wheelimus]

Yeah, in a normal cycle nobody would be running for President yet, but Trump just had to declare right after the midterms. Usually the likely candidates would just be visiting the early primary states for speeches.

 

[Ironbite4]

Hell, nobody makes an announcement until the end of the year before the election. Which would be 2023. Trump jumped the gun because even his ego could see what was coming and he wanted to get out ahead of it. And it worked...for a bit.

Ironbite-Most people declare during the summer/fall.