I’m not sure the end of de minimis is the problem, itself. It’s the half-cocked, arbitrary, process by which this is all being implemented. The rules for these vast, global, interactions are being changed every few weeks, and international sellers are not going to continue “business as usual” until they what “usual” is supposed to be.
And that’s before trying to get the US’s half assed, often barely functional, domestic shipping providers all on board with systems on trying to collect on these new tariffs.
Oh it's been chaotic, no doubt. It probably was always going to be, when tariffs got reintroduced as a major factor. Which, given the rise of AI and robots, was inevitable.
I'm not of the opinion that AI and robots will eliminate all jobs and therefore all taxable income ... but the possibility is not absent. But even in the most optimistic scenario that these new tools simply increase our productivity and eliminate scarcity, we will end up with massive created value that isn't captured as personal income. Government is likely to grow, not shrink, especially if UBI is needed for permanently displaced workers....so how to pay?
In the long run I can see only two options. Either tax the producers at such a high rate it's effectively nationalization, or tax consumption via tariffs. Increased productivity is going to drive trade increases, tariffs or none.
To an extent I think it is quietly seen as a convenience by some in the more liberal, free trade camp, that a chaotic populist is doing their experimentation for them. What succeeds, they'll keep as their template. What fails, they don't get blamed for. Watch and see what they do in the next decade...
