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Let’s be honest: there's no chance of a lasting ceasefire now. Iran just got bombed without having a bomb, yet managed to save over 800 pounds of enriched uranium in the process. Now they’ve got both the material and the motive. The message they've been given is clear: not having nukes didn’t...

What happened is Israel finally found someone dumb enough to co-sign their long-desired regime change in Iran. And they're not letting Trump off the hook now. https://time.com/7295726/netanyahu-trump-israel-iran-nuclear-strikes If he's remotely as smart as he thinks he is (or just has the...

So worth it... https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trumps-bombing-probably-set-irans-nuclear-program-back-by-mere-months-report-says_n_685b0444e4b04f1da81c663a

He wasn't debasing it before? This is what finally sealed it?

Trump didn’t just get played, he chose to be played. Ignored his own intel, let Fox feed him a peace prize fantasy and handed Israel exactly what they wanted. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-decision-bomb-iran-influenced-by-fox-news_n_685a78b8e4b0c75437067cd5

I'd be more surprised if they didn't.

Sure. Enriching to 60% can be a pressure tactic: a way to gain leverage in negotiations, not necessarily a step toward a bomb. Iran has done this before in response to sanctions or attacks, then scaled it back. As for IAEA opacity, that's also not unusual. States under pressure often play...

That’s speculation, not evidence. If Iran were truly building or even brandishing a nuke program to extort the world, the intel community would be shouting it from the rooftops to justify strikes. But they’re not, because there’s nothing solid to show. "Might be doing something" isn’t a basis...

Considering I don't believe Iran was on the verge of building nukes (as per my previous posts), I obviously don't think what we just did was worth the cost. From where I sit, it's already done more harm than good. Economically, strategically and diplomatically. If Iran is willing to absorb the...

That assumes perfect coordination and instant resolve, but markets move faster than militaries. A disruption doesn't need to last long to cause global pain. And Iran doesn't have to win, just make enough noise to shake the system. The rich may gallop to defend their money, but they can't rewind...

He said "people like the Houthis," not "the Houthis will close Hormuz." The point is Iran already has other proxy groups they can lean on (e.g. Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq). They don't need to invent anything new. Yeah, the world would definitely try to reopen Hormuz, but markets don’t wait for...

Meanwhile, the big takeaway for every regime watching? Get nukes. Iraq didn't have them. Libya gave them up. North Korea kept theirs and no one's invading Pyongyang. All this really did was make proliferation look like the smart move.

Let’s not celebrate just yet. Even if there's a ceasefire on paper, Iran was never going to fight a conventional war unless we actually invaded. Short of that, their strategy is asymmetric: proxies, cyber attacks, regional disruption and economic pressure. Those tools don't go away because...

Exactly. And it gets even worse when you remember the world still runs on the petrodollar. Disruptions like that don't just mess with oil. They shake everything tied to dollar-based trade. If oil flow slows, the ripple effect hits global shipping, currency markets and commodity prices...

They don’t need to "hold" the Strait, just make it risky. A few mines, missiles or drone hits are enough to spike prices and force reroutes. That's exactly what happened with the Houthis in the Red Sea, and they're way less capable than Iran. China might not like disruption, but they can't...

I don't think wonko is saying Iran produces 1/5 of the world's oil. I suspect he meant that the Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of all global oil shipments, which is absolutely true. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504 It's not about Iran's output, it's about their...

Markets don't wait for a full-scale war. Just the threat of Iran messing with shipping can spike oil prices and disrupt trade. We've already seen that with the Houthis, and Iran's got way more reach. Sure, Iran's not what it was a year ago, but it's not Libya either. It's bigger, more dug in...

The IAEA confirmed multiple times that Iran was complying with the deal until the US pulled out: https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iran-is-implementing-nuclear-related-jcpoa-commitments-director-general-amano-tells-iaea-board The higher enrichment only started after the deal collapsed. And...

Sure, we could blast the Strait open in a day, but Iran doesn't need to win a naval battle. They just need to threaten shipping enough to spook markets. Even a few mines or missile strikes could drive oil to $150+ and mess with global trade. It's not about military parity. It's about how...