Ranting about quebec: newspark edition!

The previous one resigned and the party picked a new leader who automatically became PM.

Pocket said:

So I'm super confused. Did Canada have an election recently or didn't they? There's a new Prime Minister, and Anonymous X recently posted results from...something, but googling "canada election results" just got me articles about the new PM and old news about the 2021 election.

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Oh, that results chart was for the recent Ontario provincial election.

The new prime minister, Mark Carney, got the job because he was chosen to be the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, the party which has the most seats in the House of Commons. Despite not being an MP yet – his aim is to win a seat in this year’s federal election.

Interesting. So it's like their version of the House of Representatives electing a non-member as Speaker, and then the President and Vice President resigning and making that person President by rules of succession.

Corollary: Carney will probably be calling an election sometime between now and next week, but definitely calling an election. Not only is it the proper thing to do (he has no seat, and he is not the person that was voted for to be prime minister.), but it'll also continue to take the wind out of the tories sail.

Sadly, it's also put the country into 35 days of caretaker mode: where nothing that isn't an immediate emergency will be taken care of. Which is ridiculously poor timing giving trump.

I have no idea how he'll do long term, but he's done okay so far in the first week, and it's completely undermined poilievre, which is actually the only bit I cared about for the upcoming election anyway.

Pocket said:

Interesting. So it's like their version of the House of Representatives electing a non-member as Speaker, and then the President and Vice President resigning and making that person President by rules of succession.

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Nah, not really. That’s like comparing apples and oranges. I mean, the president of the US is simultaneously head of state and head of government. Canada’s head of state is King Charles, and the head of government is the prime minister.

Think of it as like if the UK changed prime minister, but the incoming prime minister wasn’t an MP. Nearest comparison. (Although, since 1902 there has been a requirement for a prime minister to be a sitting MP, basically in order to prevent members of the House of Lords from being appointed prime minister.)

Alright, so I was helping make dinner (shepards pie! Yum!) and we were listening to the radio. An ad played from the quebec government in which the population was encouraged to consume differently by fixing things instead of replacing them.

I don't know how long this ad has been running, but: in quebec, IF you can even get something fixed, it's usually equal to or more expensive than simply replacing the broken item. The only reason they would try to change peoples mind is because buying new will either become decidedly more expensive or completely unavailable. And with the tariffs: even if you can GET part to repair stuff, it will still be even more expensive than before.

So not only are prices going to skyrocket, availability will crash as well.

So, just watched this.


TLDR: poilievre said he would respect the results of the polls... if he won.

Where have I heard that before?

It worked, didn't it?

Welp, I voted today. It took an hour (cause it was the first day of early voting and it was both ABSOLUTELY packed and (because of the long weekend.) absolutely under-staffed.), but I did it.

Now we wait 10 more days to find out how this ends.

Welp, it's finally election day. Regardless of how it comes out, the campaign ends tonight.

Some interesting numbers for you all: the liberals are ahead by about 5 points in the general polls, and about 85% of the population have decided on their vote regardless of whom they vote for. Most of the analysts are currently predicting a liberal mandate, the only question is whether it's a minority or majority. Carney is about 10-13 points more popular than poilievre in as a leader for the country.

There's also a rumour going round that poilievre might lose his riding. Which would be awesome and hilarious. Since he's not going to be the prime minister: no matter what he's going to be facing a leadership review (which is how the individual political parties up here determine if it's time to replace the current party leader.), and keeping his own riding will probably make the difference between winning and losing that review. But he also lost the tories biggest lead EVER (and the funniest part is; it's not even poilievres fault, really, it's trumps. I mean, it was because poilievre was basically just using trumps playbook and if you were just listening you couldn't tell the difference between the two.) so they might just replace him anyway as tories do not abide failure despite being long running, hard hitting failures. Can't wait to see what EVEN MORE EXTREME, rich, charisma less white guy they intend to run next.

Saw some polling from Yougov (UK polling company), still a narrow estimated gap between Liberals and Tories even with the Liberals ahead. BQ doing middling, better than 2011 but hardly 1993. NDP look like they’ll be virtually wiped out or sink to the same seat count as the Greens.

Just hope you guys manage to keep the MAGAised Tories out this time round…

Yeah, me too. Don't want an american styled upset at the 11th hour. And regardless, we're probably going to be seeing massive shifts in the canadian political landscape. The NDP will be hunting for a new leader, maybe the tories too, maybe even the bloc as well (but I don't give two shits about those seperatist fuckwits.).

The NDP will probably push more towards center to try to appeal to more voters, and it won't work; part of the problem was that they abandoned their core beliefs in favour of chasing votes. The Tories will probably become even more extreme, as that's the end result of conservatism in north america to continue to appeal to their base, so the next guy (if it isn't poilievre, and... I doubt it will. Doubling down on the rhetoric won't help for at least a year, depending on how well the liberals actually do, and reversing course on policy and rhetoric will enrage and disperse their core base.) will be maga plus, and while it'll continue to appeal to their core base: it won't get them new voters.

I've been meaning to ask, do you think seeing what's currently going on down here is doing a lot to help the Liberals' case? Has it been a key point of their campaigning?

Pocket said:

I've been meaning to ask, do you think seeing what's currently going on down here is doing a lot to help the Liberals' case? Has it been a key point of their campaigning?

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Trump has literally been the dominant element of the election: and he is DIRECTLY responsible for the historic and unprecedented torie popularity poll loss.

See; the population was mostly sick and tired of trudeau. He routinely failed to deliver on his promises, and the tories were pretty exceptional in their ability to dredge up absolute bullshit and turn it into talking points. People were mostly planning on voting torie as a protest against trudeau, he would consequently get removed as liberal leader and replaced.

But the evidence was that trudeau had no intention of bailing: everyone, including the tories were expecting an october election. Everyone thought they had more time to jive talk trudeau... and they didn't get it. Trudeau bailed, a non politician with a functionally sparkling record was dropped in... and trump was elected in the US. Suddenly, a lot more people could hear just how much poilievre sounded like trump, how he was regurgitating american talking points and rhetoric, and his ENTIRE CAMPAIGN was solely jive talking trudeau. To the point where when the liberals brought in carney: all polievre could do was literally call carney the same as trudeau.

So you've got the major reason people didn't want to vote liberal ******* off, and a constant stream of threats from canadas biggest trading partner threatening our autonomy and economy. And while torie voters aren't exactly the shiniest pennies in the fountain: The guy wandering around spouting "Canada First" and literally "Make canada great again", who very really wore a red hat, and called themselves maple maga; well, they caught on and did some thinking.

Trump is directly responsible for the coming liberal mandate. And it's entirely because he sucks.

Trump being so repugnant is a good thing in one way and one way only. It's his stench becoming a stumbling block for right-wing authoritarians in the rest of the world.