every election since 2020 has overestimated republicans' chances and underestimated democrats' chances. no matter how much the polls claim they're "more accurate than ever," i'm skeptical of them at best; most people don't answer numbers they don't know these days (especially Gen X, Y, Z and Alpha), and pollsters never call cell phones (when more and more people under 50 don't even bother with landlines).
plus, it is an established fact republicans will hire "pollsters" to deliberately inflate the numbers for their candidates, in an attempt to get democratic voters to just say "why bother" and not vote. it's part of their voter suppression strategy.
i'm done with doomism. my philosophy now is "hope for the best and do what you can to make that happen, and if the worst happens, wake the **** up, samurai. we got some MAGAzis to burn."