Musing I had on Discord the other day...
Sometimes I wonder if the MCU would have worked out for Marvel without Disney buying the whole thing.
I could see it getting through the Phase 1 movies, at least. The true test would be how well the Phase 2 films would have done without Disney's money to support them, but remember that Phase 2 got off to a very rocky start with Iron Man 3 and Thor: The Dark World. Winter Soldier might have saved it enough to get to Guardians 1 and Age of Ultron, but Ant-Man might have been more of a gamble than it originally was. Phase 3 is where the MCU might have lived or died, but I also don't see Sony letting the MCU borrow Spider-Man in this alternate Disney-less version of the MCU, so his appearance in Civil War and the Home trilogy probably wouldn't have happened.
Likewise, the expansion from films into television and streaming series might not have happened. No Agents of SHIELD, Agent Carter, or Inhumans on ABC, no Runaways or Helstrom on Hulu, no Cloak & Dagger on Freeform, and no Disney Plus shows. Netflix might have still been interested, but they probably would have only made it to The Defenders or Season 1 of The Punisher.
Best case scenario in this hypothetical, the MCU might have reached the end of Phase 3 and gone out on a high note with Endgame, since no Spider-Man means no Far From Home to end Phase 3, with Endgame now giving Phase 3 a stronger finale. With Endgame coming along right before the Pandemic, the MCU would then take a break to ride high on its success and let nostalgia bloom for a few years before possibly trying to bring it back with a follow-up film or two. The actual Phase 4 we got under Disney was a real mixed bag, so I can see the same being the case in this scenario. Maybe we'd get Black Widow and the next Thor, Doctor Strange, or Black Panther (despite Chadwick Boseman's passing, like what actually happened), but I imagine it would be more of a mess than the actual Phase 4 was. So much so that Phase 5 and 6 might not have happened at all. The MCU might have gone on hiatus again before someone comes along to try again and course correct after the less than stellar performance of this version of Phase 4.
But, it might get to the point where people just wish it had all stayed concluded with Endgame so that the MCU could be remembered more fondly as one complete package of 21 films (remember, no Spider-Man, so no Homecoming or Far From Home, so Phase 3 would be only 9 films instead of 11). Then those 21 films (or at least the best ones) could be milked for all their worth with special edition DVD and Blu-Ray releases, anniversary releases, and deals with whichever streaming services wanted to carry them either individually or altogether.
But, I'm just spit-balling. What do I really know?